"Do interest rates matter? I believe they do… the CapEx story is not just robust, not just strong, but it is broadening."Investment
Last week's brief asked whether the Fed would raise rates again or hold. It held.
Our estimate from the evidence below, written to be graded: one outcome, one date, one confidence level. It is not market pricing or financial advice.
The Fed raises its rate by 0.25, to 4.00–4.25%, on December 9.
Since this call was made (Nov 2): October jobs came in strong (+165,000, unemployment 4.1%), and core consumer prices rose 0.3% for a third month. Both support an increase. Energy prices cooled and oil fell to $107, which weakens it. The confidence is unchanged at 65%. Bowman and Waller both gave outlook speeches on November 10, the last major signals before the meeting.
Releases that could move the December decision. Expect questions about them in your 1:1s.
Latest published figure, with the FRED series it comes from. Tiles marked AI-relevant bear most directly on AI budgets and costs.
Demand for software skills keeps rising, but employment at IT services firms hasn't turned yet.
Software postings are about a third of their early-2022 peak, when tech hiring was unusually hot. The rise since mid-2025 is the first sustained recovery since then.
From speeches and press conferences, 2025–2026. The first quote is new this week; the rest are from the archive.
"Do interest rates matter? I believe they do… the CapEx story is not just robust, not just strong, but it is broadening."Investment
"While I am skeptical that AI is already making significant contributions to productivity growth, I have little doubt that it will do so."Productivity
"I see it as likely that AI will allow workers to be more productive while also changing the tasks associated with any given job."Work and tasks
"Many have legitimate concerns that AI will cause job loss. At least for certain firms and workers in certain occupations, this is likely to be true."Jobs
"Leverage in the AI sector could increase—and so could the losses if sentiment toward AI shifts."Financial risk
"So far, the imprint of AI is difficult to discern in the employment statistics, but that is likely to change."Jobs
Statements about AI or productivity since 2024 that are specific enough to grade (archive, as of Oct 15). Every one lacked a measurable outcome or a deadline. Warsh's October 28 remarks follow the same pattern: he asked whether AI will be "a productivity miracle" or happen slowly, and left it to the November 16 hearing.
Two misses that matter for planning budgets and roadmaps.
"It isn't anybody's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike."
The Fed raised rates on September 16, and in that month's projections 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more increase this year.
"I still see headline and core inflation falling to 2.2 percent next year."
December 2025 inflation was 2.8% headline and 2.9% core. This September it reached 3.7%. Cook dissented in October in favor of another increase.
On growth and inflation, the FOMC's official projections were slightly more accurate than professional forecasters' (core inflation a year out: 1.1 vs. 1.3 points off). On the Fed's own rate path, market participants did better (0.25 vs. 0.37 points off a year out).
From the Claims Archive as of Oct 15; not refreshed this week. Skill: above 0 beats a coin flip, 1 is perfect. Confident misses cost the most. Faded rows have under 5 graded calls, so their scores are mostly noise.
| Official | Graded | Right | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Powell | 4 | 100% | +0.77 |
| Michelle Bowman | 15 | 93% | +0.48 |
| Philip Jefferson | 6 | 83% | +0.34 |
| Adriana Kugler | 17 | 76% | +0.20 |
| Christopher Waller | 30 | 63% | +0.13 |
| Lisa Cook | 10 | 70% | +0.11 |
| Michael Barr | 1 | 0% | −1.69 |
| Kevin Warsh (Chair) | 0 | – | no checkable calls yet |
Officials call their own rate decisions well. Inflation and jobs are where they miss, and on AI they haven't made a call that can be checked.
Starting points to adapt in each 1:1, not scripts.
Customers face borrowing costs near 5% and energy prices up 20% from a year ago, and another rate increase in December looks more likely than not. Expect AI features to be judged on measurable payback: lead with time or cost saved, and plan for longer approvals on large deals.
Use when: prioritizing the roadmap, or a deal slips.
Software job postings are up 24% from a year ago, far faster than postings overall, and unemployment fell to 4.1% in October as hiring picked up. Spending on computing and software is up 21%, and the Fed chair says that investment is broadening beyond a few companies. Building and running AI systems is where companies are spending.
Use when: someone asks whether layoffs are coming, or about AI replacing engineering work.
Plan with ranges, not single numbers. Confident inflation forecasts missed two years running, electricity prices are up 4% this year, and oil has swung between $61 and $138 since January. Assume borrowing stays expensive into 2027 and build buffers for compute and vendor price increases.
Use when: setting next year's budget, or renewing cloud and vendor contracts.
This brief now makes its own graded call: a December rate increase at 65% confidence, checked on December 9. It's the same discipline we should apply to our results: name the metric, the threshold and the date, say how sure we are, and record the outcome either way.
Use when: reviewing a paper draft, eval report or benchmark claim.
Policymakers talk about AI often, but none of their 54 statements in the archive can be checked, and the Fed is now holding a public hearing on November 16 to work out its view. Commitments we write in model cards, risk assessments and policies should be testable: a measurable outcome and a date.
Use when: drafting commitments, or designing human review for AI-assisted processes.
Open forecasts that will be graded soon, with the latest data against each.